en fait, (Securibourse)

par caque, mercredi 13 février 2008, 23:13 (il y a 6123 jours) @ rv
édité par caque, mercredi 13 février 2008, 23:21

» je ne sais pas.
» J'ai, surement, comme beaucoup, le cul entre deux chaises entre le spectre
» « Labadien» d’une récession avec à la clef une nouvelle crise de 29 et
» l’impression que beaucoup de valeurs ont atteint leur point bas que ce
» soit sur le plan de leur valorisation ou que ce soit d’un point de vue
» graphique.

Une citation prise sur ce lien
http://www.lmcm.com/pdf/miller_commentary/2008-02_miller_commentary.pdf

Investors seem to be obsessed just now over the question
of whether we will go into recession or not, a particularly
pointless inquiry. The stocks that perform poorly entering
a recession are already trading at recession levels. If
we go into recession, we will come out of it. In any case,
we have had only two recessions in the past 25 years, and
they totaled 17 months. As long-term investors, we position
portfolios for the 95% of the time the economy is
growing, not the unforecastable 5% when it is not.

Ca reflète assez bien ma manière de voir les choses. Je ne crois pas qu'on puisse prédire avec fiabilité les grosses récessions.

Et une autre citation de Warren Buffet
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/02/06/buffett.html

We don't spend any time talking about where the economy is going," Buffett told a business audience in Toronto. "We have a basic belief that the country will do very well over time.

"We like to buy businesses run by good people in fields we understand. It doesn't make any difference what goes on in the short term."

Forget trying to time the market, he said. "You shouldn't try to compete with the pros. If you try to be a lot smarter, you'll probably end up being a lot dumber.