ventus

par Ju, mardi 21 février 2006, 13:17 (il y a 6861 jours) @ Ventus

Tu es à part l'uranium sur quelles sociétés>

Pour info, Aton vient de publier une analyse sur Urasia Energy:

Urasia Energy. Rare exposure to global uranium market

Urasia Energy is the world’s ninth-largest uranium miner, which holds a diverse portfolio of Kazakhstan assets that strongly position it for revenue and profit growth. It is also one of just four listed uranium producers, placing it in a very exclusive global club. Urasia Energy went public in November 2005 via a $425mn reverse takeover on the Toronto venture exchange and is led by a respected management team with extensive experience in both the uranium and broader mining industries. The company produces yellowcake, or uranium oxide, which in itself is a relatively harmless substance as it requires multiple processing stages before becoming nuclear fuel.

Urasia Energy has teamed up at the operational level with the Kazakh government, which has direct equity interests in the company’s mines. Such a structure allows for an alignment of the interests of investors and the state and ensures that Urasia Energy has unhindered access to government-owned processing plants used to make nuclear fuel rods.

Globally, the uranium mining industry is experiencing a supply crunch as past under-investment has meant little expansion of capacity in recent decades. Additionally, since the end of the Cold War the nuclear power industry has relied on uranium stockpiles and decommissioned nuclear warheads from the preceding four decades, which currently satisfy 26% of global demand. Meanwhile, actual mined uranium satisfies only 61% of demand, with the remainder mostly coming from reprocessing, which is limited in scope.

This supply crunch has triggered a sharp increase in the price of uranium oxide. Uranium posted an all-time high in 1979 at $43/lbs and an all-time low in 2001 at $7/lbs; the metal currently fetches $38/lbs and the price looks set to continue to increase. We do not have an explicit forecast for uranium prices, although we note that most industry observers view $100/lbs as a realistic level in the next few years. Importantly, stockpiled uranium is forecast to run out in 10 years time and uranium production from existing and slated new mines cannot bridge the gap. Meanwhile, uranium consumption is steadily growing as countries try to wean themselves off increasingly expensive hydrocarbon-fueled energy.

Urasia Energy’s relatively short corporate history means it lacks the substantive historical results required to build a thorough financial model. However, based on the company’s resources and forecast operational cash flow it seems attractively priced, especially if considered against the backdrop of a world that is looking anew at nuclear energy as a reasonably priced, efficient and clean alternative to hydrocarbons.

In terms of resource valuation, Urasia trades at $9.8/lbs of resource, which is more than 20% below the world’s top producer, Cameco. Based on Urasia’s cash costs of $10/lbs and an average uranium price of $37/lbs, Urasia Energy trades at 27.4X 2006F and 16.2X 2007F operating cash flow, which we see as reasonable multiples considering the company is forecast to increase output 4.5X by 2010. We believe that the company warrants investor attention as rare yet reasonably valued exposure to an alternative fuel source in an increasingly tight global energy market.