Je continue avec plusieurs paragraphes tirées d'une rapport vieux de 6 ans par Prof. Maurice B. Dusseault. Il est un expert sur le pétrol lourde de Canada, et un des trois co-créateurs de la socété Wavefront Technologies (WEE.v). Wavefront a déjà fait +1000% pour moi, et j'espère que c'est juste le début.

Pour réference, Prof. Dusseaut est aussi l'auteur d'une grande étude définitive d'une technique d'extraction CHOPS,
| http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/2856.asp
Ce rapport est intéressant pas seulement pour ses explications techniques, mais aussi pour ses explications sur le développement des nouvelles technologies par des sociétés canadiennes de petite et moyenne taille et l'environnement d'innovation qui se dévéloppe en Canada.

Voici le point de vue de Prof Dusseault. Peut-être son idée la plus importante, c'est que le petroleum comme on l'imagine d'habitude ne constitue que quelques pourcents des resources mondiales en hydrocarbones.

*** Excerpts from a 1999 paper by Prof. Maurice B. Dusseault ***

A consensus has emerged that worldwide production of conventional oil will peak in the next decade. Thereafter, a gradual decline in light oil production will occur. ... Simply put, we are running out [of] conventional oil because we are running out of new basins [to explore]. ...

Are we running out of energy or oil> No; only conventional oil is potentially in short supply. This is apparent for several reasons. First, over the span of centuries, new energy sources systematically displace previous ones (e.g. cow dung, wood, charcoal, coal, oil, nuclear, natural gas, solar, hydrogen cycle); this will happen with oil. Second, conventional oil represents only a small fraction of the hydrocarbon resources in basins (Table 1); technology developments and price will permit economic access to other HC resources. Third, if demand for oil continues indefinitely, oil can be made from natural gas or coal. The technology for coal and gas conversion already exists, even if it is not currently commercially viable. Fourth, oil can be fabricated from re-newable sources such as plants; Japan in the last year of the Second World War produced an oil from trees (albeit of poor quality). Fifth, given a source of energy such as solar power, HC molecules can even be manufactured from the basic elements (H from electrolysis, C from CO2 or plants). ...

It is obvious that there is a limit to the amount of conventional (light) oil in sedimentary basins. This is relevant to the oil industry in the short term (10-30 years) but is inconsequential to the energy industry in the long term (50-200 years). ...

What are the ramifications for heavy oil> As peak light oil production is approached, economic pressure will increase to develop other sources, and the next most economic and technologically feasible source of oil is heavy oil. In the short term (1-5 years), price spikes will always happen as local disparities between supply and demand occur. However, in the long term (>5 years) prices can rise only to the limit where another technology can be economically developed to replace the higher-priced one. If the price of conventional oil stays above $USD20.00, it is almost certain that massive heavy oil development will occur in Venezuela and Canada. Heavy oil is profitable at this price; therefore, higher prices cannot be sustained indefinitely. Technology will be refined and other sources of oil will be developed, placing downward pressure on temporarily elevated prices. ...

There is no realistic limit to heavy oil production, given the developments in the last few decades (cyclic steam for some reservoirs, SAGD for others, cheap horizontal wells, CHOP, cheaper mining methods), the new technologies now being developed (pressure pulsing, VAPEX, hybrid schemes), and the technical progress that will continue. ...

Table 1 : Estimated % of total hydrocarbons in sedimentary basins
2-3% Conventional light oil
4-6% Heavy oil
4-6% Natural gas
2-8% (extremely uncertain) Gas hydrates
40-60% Kerogen and oil in shales
30-50% Coal and lignite seams

Ma modeste contribution à la discussion: informations fournies par FINDPROFIT, USA, auquel je suis abonné.(reduit pour ne pas dépasser la taille limite).

Are Energy Bulls In Inventory Denial>


“Natural gas stocks are now substantially above last year's levels and more than 28% higher than their five-year average, even though a material portion (around 20%) of Gulf of Mexico production still remains offline due to Katrina damage.” Across the board, from the Oil Service Holders (^OIH) to the Oil Services Index (^OSX), energy shares have fallen around -15% on average in just a few short weeks. Momentum investors have been pummeled.

On the inventory front, natural gas stocks are now substantially above last year's levels and more than 28% higher than their five-year average, even though a material portion (around 20%) of Gulf of Mexico production still remains offline due to Katrina damage. Similarly, crude oil supplies are 12% higher than their seasonal average, and soaring gasoline supplies have crushed "crack spread" margins for refiners. In another example, tanker shipping rates were off -37% from a year ago during the seasonally strong Q4 period/

Certainly the warm winter has played a big part in averting a potential supply crunch, but even without the recent warm weather, inventories were surprisingly high and shipping rates surprisingly low in Q4.
Oil: "We would generally limit exposure to most pure-play oil stocks, unless: 1) there is clear, multi-year production growth visibility at the company, or 2) management is determined to return value to shareholders via buybacks, dividends, or other maneuvers. There's still a lot of value ready to be returned in this group, so don't ignore point #2."

Natural Gas: "If you assume that Gulf of Mexico production will return in 2006, with increased LNG imports not far behind in 2007, we believe that natural gas prices could be setting themselves up for a nice wallop as demand drops amid rising supply. For this reason, we would look to short outsized strength in natural gas equities into any winter-driven squeeze. Natural gas could be the short play of 2006."

So far, natural gas has turned into the short of 2006, while oil markets have bounced around a tight trading range. Meanwhile, we argued that coal stocks, LNG-plays, select alternative energy names ("avoid longshot dreams" and look for viable gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids plays), and select energy service names were the place to be in the group. In other words, we were talking our book, with long positions in coal stocks James River Coal (JRCC) and Massey Energy (MEE), LNG-plays Southern Union Gas (SUG) and Teekay Shipping (TK), gas-to-liquids play Sasol (SSL), and energy service name Pride International (PDE).

INSTITUTIONS SEEK TO UNLOCK VALUE IN COAL SHARES

Looking towards the coal sector, the evidence is mounting that we've seen a near-term top in prices (and even some modest declines), and the recent sharp pullback in natural gas prices and the warm winter weather should only reinforce that fact. This means that the "easy gains" from commodity price rises are now priced into many of the stocks, and that the driver of returns at this point will increasingly be management execution (particularly on the cost side) and industry consolidation.

While the medium-term fundamentals for coal pricing remain solid as utility demand grows, at this point our bottom-line return is going to be increasingly impacted by the two factors that we outlined above: management execution and industry consolidation. Managers at JRCC and MEE have so far failed to deliver on the first point, as tight labor markets and rising mining costs have put a cap on profit margins. We're making a bet that they can do a better job in 2006, or else more capable executive teams will be put in place. Similarly, both companies are well positioned as either consolidators or takeover targets. The question is whether their current management teams can take advantage of this opportunity - or whether new management will need to be hired that can.

Merci, c'est intéressant!