Disruptive Technologies dans le secteur de l'energie -- 2

par alatan, samedi 18 février 2006, 12:33 (il y a 6864 jours) @ alatan

Je continue avec plusieurs paragraphes tirées d'une rapport vieux de 6 ans par Prof. Maurice B. Dusseault. Il est un expert sur le pétrol lourde de Canada, et un des trois co-créateurs de la socété Wavefront Technologies (WEE.v). Wavefront a déjà fait +1000% pour moi, et j'espère que c'est juste le début.

Pour réference, Prof. Dusseaut est aussi l'auteur d'une grande étude définitive d'une technique d'extraction CHOPS,
| http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/2856.asp
Ce rapport est intéressant pas seulement pour ses explications techniques, mais aussi pour ses explications sur le développement des nouvelles technologies par des sociétés canadiennes de petite et moyenne taille et l'environnement d'innovation qui se dévéloppe en Canada.

Voici le point de vue de Prof Dusseault. Peut-être son idée la plus importante, c'est que le petroleum comme on l'imagine d'habitude ne constitue que quelques pourcents des resources mondiales en hydrocarbones.

*** Excerpts from a 1999 paper by Prof. Maurice B. Dusseault ***

A consensus has emerged that worldwide production of conventional oil will peak in the next decade. Thereafter, a gradual decline in light oil production will occur. ... Simply put, we are running out [of] conventional oil because we are running out of new basins [to explore]. ...

Are we running out of energy or oil> No; only conventional oil is potentially in short supply. This is apparent for several reasons. First, over the span of centuries, new energy sources systematically displace previous ones (e.g. cow dung, wood, charcoal, coal, oil, nuclear, natural gas, solar, hydrogen cycle); this will happen with oil. Second, conventional oil represents only a small fraction of the hydrocarbon resources in basins (Table 1); technology developments and price will permit economic access to other HC resources. Third, if demand for oil continues indefinitely, oil can be made from natural gas or coal. The technology for coal and gas conversion already exists, even if it is not currently commercially viable. Fourth, oil can be fabricated from re-newable sources such as plants; Japan in the last year of the Second World War produced an oil from trees (albeit of poor quality). Fifth, given a source of energy such as solar power, HC molecules can even be manufactured from the basic elements (H from electrolysis, C from CO2 or plants). ...

It is obvious that there is a limit to the amount of conventional (light) oil in sedimentary basins. This is relevant to the oil industry in the short term (10-30 years) but is inconsequential to the energy industry in the long term (50-200 years). ...

What are the ramifications for heavy oil> As peak light oil production is approached, economic pressure will increase to develop other sources, and the next most economic and technologically feasible source of oil is heavy oil. In the short term (1-5 years), price spikes will always happen as local disparities between supply and demand occur. However, in the long term (>5 years) prices can rise only to the limit where another technology can be economically developed to replace the higher-priced one. If the price of conventional oil stays above $USD20.00, it is almost certain that massive heavy oil development will occur in Venezuela and Canada. Heavy oil is profitable at this price; therefore, higher prices cannot be sustained indefinitely. Technology will be refined and other sources of oil will be developed, placing downward pressure on temporarily elevated prices. ...

There is no realistic limit to heavy oil production, given the developments in the last few decades (cyclic steam for some reservoirs, SAGD for others, cheap horizontal wells, CHOP, cheaper mining methods), the new technologies now being developed (pressure pulsing, VAPEX, hybrid schemes), and the technical progress that will continue. ...

Table 1 : Estimated % of total hydrocarbons in sedimentary basins
2-3% Conventional light oil
4-6% Heavy oil
4-6% Natural gas
2-8% (extremely uncertain) Gas hydrates
40-60% Kerogen and oil in shales
30-50% Coal and lignite seams